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FXCA20 KWBC 011727
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
127 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 JUL 2024 AT 1730 UTC:
THERE ARE A FEW IMPORTANT FEATURES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STARTING WITH
HURRICANE BERYL...WHICH AS OF THIS WRITING...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS IT AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH (220 KPH). BASED ON THE LATEST ADVISORY
FROM NHC...BERYL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE WNW AT 20 MPH (31
KPH)...AND WHILE RELATIVELY COMPACT...IT WILL CAUSE VERY
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH COULD ACCUMULATE AS MUCH AS
100-200MM WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...OVER THE 3-DAY PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BERYL WILL ALSO AFFECT JAMAICA BY MIDWEEK...ALSO EXPECTED
TO CAUSE 100-200MM OF RAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RAINFALL LOCATION AS THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVING THE PEAK RAINFALL FURTHER
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN PENINSULA...THAT BEING
SAID...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST...HAS BERYL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...AND THUS
OUR RAINFALL FORECASTS REFLECTS THAT.
THERE IS ALSO THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM
CHRIS...WHICH HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO OVER NORTHERN
VERACRUZ. THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MAX VALUES TODAY BETWEEN 75-150MM WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOME AREAS FROM CENTRAL VERACRUZ TO THE
NORTHWEST TO GUANAJUATO...QUEFETARO AND SAN LUIS POTOSI. THE
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THAT AREA IN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITH EACH PASSING DAY THIS WEEK INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING
SAID...CLOSER ATTENTION WILL BE PLACED ON THE WESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE TO WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO CAUSE DAILY RAINFALL MAX VALUES THAT COULD
BE UP TO 50MM DAILY FROM JALISCO TO SINALOA TODAY...EXTENDING
NORTH TO SONORA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NHC GIVING IT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS OF THIS WRITING.
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 79W...CROSSING PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
SETUP WILL CAUSE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING RAINFALL REACHING
VALUES NEAR 30-60MM OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA
TODAY...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE OVER COSTA
RICA INTO NICARAGUA FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE MOISTURE MOVES WEST TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE CONVERGES WITH
THE MOISTURE COMING FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC.
ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS...A
SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO NORTHERN CUBA IS CAUSING
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE AREA...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH MAX RAINFALL VALUES NEAR 45MM OVER NORTHWESTERN
CUBA TODAY...BUT UP TO 25MM ARE FORECAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT AREA...FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO CUBA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN...AHEAD OF BERYL...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WEST THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RELATING TO BERYL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
CUBA...BUT UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO GO UP BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
ONE MORE THING TO CONSIDER IS THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE NEAR
40W...KNOWN AS AL96. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. THE OUTLOOK BY NHC HAS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE
LATEST FORECAST CARRIES THIS SYSTEM AS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF AL96...ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH
MAX VALUES NEAR 25-50MM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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