056
FXUS01 KWBC 011911
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2024
VALID 00Z TUE JUL 02 2024 - 00Z THU JUL 04 2024
...DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE SIMMERING HEAT BUILDS
THROUGHOUT CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY STARTING TUESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...
JULY KICKS OFF WITH ANOMALOUS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
IMPACTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, OVER 60 MILLION RESIDENTS ARE UNDER
HEAT-RELATED WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND ADVISORIES. UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS WHILE
RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. FOR THE CENTRAL
U.S., HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND LOW 100S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. WHEN
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE INTO THE 110S ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY SPAN
FROM KANSAS TO THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTER ENJOYING A REFRESHING
START TO THE WORKWEEK, THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST CAN EXPECT A
GRADUAL RETURN TO MUGGY SUMMER WARMTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REORIENTS ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST AND USHERS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXTREME HEAT BUILDING THROUGHOUT THE WEST COAST
AND MORE SPECIFICALLY INTERIOR CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE 100-110F RANGE, WHICH COULD BREAK NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORDS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND HEAT ADVISORIES
GO INTO EFFECT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN
OREGON TO THE LOW DESERT OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE DURATION OF
THIS HEAT WAVE IS CONCERNING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
SCORCHING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT COULD POSE A DANGER TO THE PUBLIC IF
PROPER HEAT SAFETY IS NOT FOLLOWED. THIS INCLUDES STAYING
HYDRATED, OUT OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT, AND IN PROPERLY AIR-CONDITIONED
BUILDINGS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO CHECK ON
VULNERABLE FRIENDS, FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS TO CONFIRM THEIR SAFETY.
ADDITIONALLY, A STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE SOME PRE-INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER SLIDES EASTWARD
WITH TIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT, WITH NEIGHBORING STATES INCLUDED IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR POTENT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL. OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS THE PROSPECT FOR MORE
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN RIVERS. AS
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS, AREAS OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING GRADUALLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, BUT STILL REMAINING
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAIN ARE HIGH (70-90%) FOR MUCH OF IOWA, EASTERN NEBRASKA,
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN COULD
CREATE INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS EXACERBATE ONGOING
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS AREAS STILL RECOVERING FROM LAST WEEK'S
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE'S AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY THREAT ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
CONTINUED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MIDWEEK. REGIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED DOWNPOURS INCLUDE ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, WITH BURN SCARS AND SENSITIVE TERRAIN THE
MOST AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
KEBEDE/SNELL
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