511
FXSA20 KWBC 022010
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN DISCUSSION FOR 02 JUL 2024 AT 20 UTC: A POTENT
MID-UPPER POLAR TROUGH IS MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA INTO THE DRAKE PASSAGE. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH...A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LONG FETCH AND DEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN AIRMASS OF ANTARCTIC ORIGINS
NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOTE THAT 1000-500
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN 5100 GPM ARE OCCURING WEST OF TIERRA
DEL FUEGO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONE INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ANTARCTIC AIRMASS INTRUSION IN SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ARGENTINA. 1000-500 GPM THICKNESS BELOW 5400 IS EXPECTED IN THE
RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER THIS AIRMASS ARRIVES
DEPRIVED OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
IN THE MEAN TIME...40-50KT SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING NORTHERN
MAGALLANES IN AUSTRAL CHILE WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10CM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25CM IN SOYTHERN
AYSEN/NORTHERN MAGALLANES. EAST OF THE ANDES EXPECT PERIODS WITH
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THE 5280
THICKNESS CONTOUR REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS LOS RIOS/ARAUCANIA IN
CHILE. THIS WILL FAVOR PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...WITH
EXPECTED LIQUID ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ALONG THE ANDES OF AYSEN/NORTHERN MAGALLANES EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20CM OF SNOW. IN AREAS EAST...EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS WITH
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH TRACE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
EXPECT A DECREASE THEREAFTER.
AS THE POLAR RIDGE BUILDS IN THE RIO DE LA PLATA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A PAMPERO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE
ORGANIZATION OF A COLD FRONT ON EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH SANTA CATARINA...SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY...CENTRAL
PARAGUAY AND SOUTHERN BOLIVIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALSO...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THRUSDAY EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN RIO GRANDE DO
SUL-BRASIL. BY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN EASTERN POTIONS OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS IN AREAS TO THE WEST.
GALVEZ..(WPC)
PALAVECINO (SMN-ARGENTINA)
LEDESMA (WPC)
SARABIA (DMC-CHILE)
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