764
FXCA20 KWBC 051829
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2024
NOTE: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS IS PRODUCING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM BERYL. PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC WEBSITE FOR UPDATES.
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 JUL 2024 AT 1800 UTC:
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-150MM
IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH TRAILING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE PENINSULA. THE NEXT IMPACTS OF BERYL IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED LATE ON SUNDAY...WHEN IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN FAR NORTHEAST TAMAULIPAS.
ALSO IN MEXICO...DIURNAL CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NORTHAMERICAN MONSOON CONTINUES ACTIVATING. THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL. THIS INCREASES TO MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING THEREAFTER.
IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...BROAD LOWS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN ARE
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL.
ALTHOUGH BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE
REGION...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUSTAIN A WET PATTERN IN THE PACIFIC BASINS OF
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS AND IN EL SALVADOR. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY...THIS INCREASES IN EL SALVADOR/GULF OF
FONSECA REGION TO MAXIMA OF 40-80MM AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION.
HIGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WELL (SEE BELOW).
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE CENTER OF THIS WAVE...VERTICAL SHEAR AND SAHARAN DUST IN ITS
PERIPHERY ARE LIMITING POTENTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
STILL...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT IN THE WESTERN HAITIAN PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN
JAMAICA...ENHANCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING TRADE WIND SURGE ALONG 73W
WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE AIR MASS TRAILING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATION TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN JAMAICA...SOUTHEAST CUBA AND
POTENTIALLY IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND EL
SALVADOR. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE TRADE WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS/CENTRAL
CUBA...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLY DRYING BEHIND IT. NEVERTHELESS...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THE TRADE WIND SURGE
APPROACHES THE WAVE...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EAST
NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS. IN THE REST OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR
HOWEVER...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC AND FORCING BY
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY ND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE REGION. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS...LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND RAPID PROPAGATION ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...LIMITING MAXIMA TO BELOW 15MM/DAY.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
CLARKE...(CINWS)
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