495
FXUS06 KWBC 051902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 05 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 15 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
THIS AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN YIELDS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW (ABOVE)
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA (WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS). BASED ON
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE EXPANDING ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, A BROAD AREA OF LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
(EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST AND THE ECENS INDICATES A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAYS 9 AND 10. THE EXPECTATION
OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
AS OF 11AM EDT ON JULY 5, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER STATES THAT HURRICANE
BERYL WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON JULY 7 OR 8.
BY DAY 6 (JULY 11), THE REMNANT LOW, ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL, MAY TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS.
THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING INTACT
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TO ARKANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BERYL SUPPORT INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ELEVATED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE RELATED TO A STALLED FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVING A 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED MONSOON. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE STATE.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19 2024
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. THE MANUAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS +30 METER ANOMALY DEPARTURES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
48 STATES, WHICH IS SUBSTANTIAL FOR THE SUMMER. 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 METERS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS EXPANSIVE AND ANOMALOUS
500-HPA RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER 48
STATES. A TWO-CATEGORY CHANGE FROM BELOW TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS
NECESSARY FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS REGION AS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND LATER IN WEEK-2. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD,
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WHERE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. A
PERSISTENT TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION (SKILL-WEIGHTED
COMBINATION OF GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECASTS), NAEFS, AND ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE
UNCALIBRATED GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE ON A MAXIMUM IN PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WHICH IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON. ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
DUE TO WEAK AND CONFLICTING SIGNALS AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS, NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY ON THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN AND GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050629 - 20070616 - 19790717 - 20010619 - 20060621
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010617 - 20070617 - 20000623 - 20060623 - 19790716
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 19 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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