294
FXUS01 KWBC 052031
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2024
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 06 2024 - 00Z MON JUL 08 2024
...INTENSE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...
...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY, THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...
...BERYL IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND THREATEN THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
A RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
U.S. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN, WHICH FEATURES A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST, WILL SUSTAIN A HEATWAVE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST STATES WHILE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MOST INTENSE HEAT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
INTERIOR LOW-ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 110S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE ONLY
PLACES WHERE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CAN BE FOUND WILL BE THE COOLING
EFFECTS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR THE COAST AND THE NATURALLY
COOLER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
120S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHNG INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S. THE DURATION
OF THIS HEAT IS ALSO CONCERNING AS THESE RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT IMPACTS
CAN COMPOUND OVER TIME, THEREFORE IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE AND FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. HEAT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WEST. THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SACRAMENTO/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA COULD POSE A RISK TO
ANYONE IF PROPER HEAT SAFETY IS NOT FOLLOWED. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO
STAY HYDRATED, OUT OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT, AND IN BUILDINGS WITH
SUFFICIENT AIR-CONDITIONING WHEN POSSIBLE. IT IS ALSO EQUALLY AS
IMPORTANT TO CHECK ON THE SAFETY OF VULNERABLE FRIENDS, FAMILY,
AND NEIGHBORS.
MEANWHILE, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS A COOL AIR MASS IN
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOMES IN THE WEST AND THE EAST BEGINS TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD. THE OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL AS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
ARE EXPECTED, WITH HEAT INDICES SOARING INTO THE 110S ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, LEADING TO A DANGEROUS
SITUATION FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING. BY
SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL NUDGE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO REACH
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OFFER LOWER
HUMIDITY AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR INLAND AREAS. BUT THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BY MONDAY MORNING.
OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL OFFER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JULY FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL DEVELOP A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR/OVER OKLAHOMA LATER ON SUNDAY
INTO EARLY ON MONDAY WHEN FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL, CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BERYL IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RE-INTENSIFY
AND ADOPT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY. THE FUTURE TRACK OF BERYL WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN BERYL AND THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE MID-SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY, AND HOW STRONG BERYL GETS IN THE GULF. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF BERYL.
KONG
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