243
FXUS01 KWBC 060802
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT SAT JUL 06 2024
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 06 2024 - 12Z MON JUL 08 2024
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES IN THE WEST, WITH HEAT
PERSISTING IN THE EASTERN U.S....
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
THEN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...BERYL IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND THREATEN THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF THE U.S.
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT
BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS THIS WEEKEND...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL SUPPORT
RECORD BREAKING HEAT IN THE WEST, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AND SOME MORE HEAT RISK
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A STAUNCH UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE AN INTENSE, WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION HEAT
WAVE ACROSS THE WEST. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TIED OR BROKEN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
110S LIKELY UP AND DOWN THE WEST COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
POTENTIALLY DEADLY IF NOT TAKEN SERIOUSLY. THE MULTI-DAY NATURE OF
THE HEAT AND RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HEAT
STRESS TO BUILD IN PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES, WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE WEST. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH
OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES AT TIMES. HEAT ADVISORIES STRETCH FROM
UPSTATE NEW YORK DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ALABAMA COAST. THE
INTENSE HEAT PAIRED WITH DRY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO TODAY AND
SOUTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STATIONED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, A PAIR OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL FOCUS
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROPAGATING ATOP A MOIST,
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%) OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. BERYL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE EXACT LOCATION OF BERYL'S LANDFALL IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WHAT'S MOST IMPORTANT IS THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE'S COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST BERYL FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY.
KEBEDE
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