911
FXUS01 KWBC 072045
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2024
VALID 00Z MON JUL 08 2024 - 00Z WED JUL 10 2024
...TROPICAL STORM BERYL EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST EARLY ON
MONDAY; VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WELL
INLAND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...EXTREME HEAT BECOMES LESS INTENSE IN CALIFORNIA BUT CONTINUES
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST; MORE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL....
...FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN OKLAHOMA
INTO THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL TRACKING UP EASTERN TEXAS...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH
AFTER REORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, TROPICAL STORM
BERYL IS POISED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK
MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTLINE. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF BERYL
HAVE ALREADY MOVED ONSHORE INTO EASTERN TEXAS THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINBANDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
COASTAL TEXAS WITH INCREASINGLY SQUALLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
THE CORE OF BERYL APPROACHES THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EXPECTS BERYL TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS THE CENTER OF BERYL NEARS
THE COAST. RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREAS SHOULD BE READY TO
FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS WHEN
PROMPTED TO DO SO. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, BERYL IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH
VERY HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MONDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE TRACK OF BERYL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AREAS OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY
CONSIDERABLE. MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED.
AS BERYL TRACKS FARTHER INLAND, IT WILL COME INTO INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO TURN BERYL TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. SOME
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS EXTRATROPICAL BERYL TRACKS ACROSS
ARKANSAS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF BERYL'S TRACKS.
MEANWHILE, THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE IN THE WEST IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOZENS OF DAILY
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN INTO THE
WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 100S TO 110S AND LOWS IN THE 70S WILL BE
15-30 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. THE MULTI-DAY NATURE OF THE HEAT AND
RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HEAT STRESS TO BUILD
IN PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY. THE
INTENSE HEAT IS FORECAST TO GET LESS INTENSE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 110 BY TUESDAY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 100S. MEANWHILE, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP 110 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AT THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS IN INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 120 DEGREES REMAIN WITHIN REACH IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT EVENTUALLY
LIFTS BERYL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST,
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS.
KONG/KEBEDE
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