071
FXUS01 KWBC 080735
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2024
VALID 12Z MON JUL 08 2024 - 12Z WED JUL 10 2024
...HURRICANE BERYL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO THE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...
...EXTREME HEAT RE-FOCUSES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST; MORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
WELL...
HURRICANE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UP INTO THE ARKLATEX TODAY.
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST, BUT ESPECIALLY FROM MESQUITE BAY TO
SABINE PASS. RESIDENTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD FOLLOW ANY ADVICE
GIVEN BY LOCAL OFFICIALS AND FOLLOW EVACUATION ORDERS. DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
COAST AROUND THE TIME OF BERYL'S LANDFALL THIS MORNING. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MESQUITE BAY TO SAN LUIS PASS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST UP THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TODAY, WHERE
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) AND EMBEDDED ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)
ARE IN EFFECT. CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST AND EASTERN TEXAS. MINOR TO ISOLATED MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS
ALSO EXPECTED. A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TEXAS
UP INTO THE ARKLATEX FOR TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BERYL.
A DEEP AND WELL ENTRENCHED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STATIONED OVER THE
WEST WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF AN EXTREME HEAT WAVE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 110S WILL REPRESENT 15-30 DEGREE ANOMALIES. WIDESPREAD HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RESULT OF THIS UNUSUAL HEAT. THE
MULTI-DAY LENGTH AND RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE HEAT STRESS IN PEOPLE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
AND HYDRATION. THE HEAT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM CALIFORNIA
AND OREGON NORTH TO WASHINGTON AND EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ARIZONA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS BERYL TRANSITIONS INTO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI, FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FAR
WESTERN INDIANA. THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO BERYL WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SUPPORT TRAINING RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. THUS, A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF LOUISIANA'S CENTRAL
COASTLINE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP BERYL
DIRECTS MOISTURE AND WARM AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TIE OR
BREAK EXISTING RECORDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
KEBEDE
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