398
FXUS01 KWBC 091907
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2024
VALID 00Z WED JUL 10 2024 - 00Z FRI JUL 12 2024
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...
...DANGEROUS HEAT AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEST INTO THURSDAY...
...HIGH HUMIDITY IN THE EAST WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES OF 100-110F
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEATRISK...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD TREK
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING
TO ITS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SMALL RIVER AND ROADWAY FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY, BERYL WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO AND INTO ONTARIO AND RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN SOME AREAS WITH SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATER OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE,
ESPECIALLY IN HILLIER AREAS. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO, ALONG THE
GULF COAST, AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.
IN THE WEST, THE INTENSE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND REACHING OR
EXCEEDING DAILY RECORD HIGHS OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM MEXICO TO
CANADA WEST OF THE ROCKIES. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OR HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS, EVEN INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 100S/110S WILL BE COMMONPLACE, RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MAJOR
TO EXTREME HEATRISK. IN ADDITION TO THE RECORD HIGH DAILY
TEMPERATURES, THE EARLY MORNING LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SET
RECORDS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST OVER THE COMING TWO
MORNINGS. THE MULTI-DAY LENGTH AND RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HEAT STRESS TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE ALONG THE PATH
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL THANKS TO OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN.
AHEAD OF ITS PATH, THE EAST COAST WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO PROMOTE MANY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT ONLY DIP
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT NIGHT (AND NEAR 80 IN SOME URBAN CENTERS
SUCH AS BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON, D.C.). HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND
THE COAST. BY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY COOL BY A COUPLE DEGREES
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL REACHES THE EAST COAST BUT
MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD FINALLY BRING SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
FRACASSO
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