093
FXUS01 KWBC 100759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
VALID 12Z WED JUL 10 2024 - 12Z FRI JUL 12 2024
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, EASTERN GREAT
LAKES, AND NORTHEAST TODAY...
...DANGEROUS HEAT AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
...MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
TODAY...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OHIO AND INTO ONTARIO AND RAINFALL WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN
AREAS OF NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE
IN SOME PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATER OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW
YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE, WHERE A MODERATE RISK
(AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE,
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO, ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.
A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT BURN SCARS COULD
TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. THINGS SETTLE DOWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY.
IN THE WEST, THE INTENSE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND REACHING OR
EXCEEDING DAILY RECORD HIGHS OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM MEXICO TO
CANADA WEST OF THE ROCKIES. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OR HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS, EVEN INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 100S/110S WILL BE COMMONPLACE, RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MAJOR
TO EXTREME HEATRISK. IN ADDITION TO THE RECORD HIGH DAILY
TEMPERATURES, THE EARLY MORNING LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SET
RECORDS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST OVER THE COMING FEW
MORNINGS. THE MULTI-DAY LENGTH AND RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HEAT STRESS TO ANYONE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE ALONG THE PATH OF
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL THANKS TO OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN.
AHEAD OF ITS PATH, THE EAST COAST WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100F FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO PROMOTE MANY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT ONLY DIP
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT NIGHT (AND NEAR 80 IN SOME URBAN CENTERS
SUCH AS BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON, D.C.). HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND
THE COAST, WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PHILADELPHIA AND THE SURROUNDING COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL REACHES THE EAST COAST BUT MAY STALL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS COULD FINALLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA TIDEWATER.
KEBEDE/FRACASSO
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