071
FXUS06 KWBC 102053
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 10 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 20 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN TODAY.
MOST MODELS PUT A MAXIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST
THAN YESTERDAY, NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE GEFS WAS WEAKER AND HAD A SECOND ANOMALY
CENTER IN SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY IN NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY, BUT
WITH GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR CANADA, CLOSER TO THE STRONG
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. SOME TOOLS STILL SHOW
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, BUT THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAVORED, WHICH PLACE A RELATIVE
MINIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY THERE BUT KEEP HEIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN CANADA FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHWEST, SO THE FORECAST LEANED MORE TOWARD
GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY
STRONG MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM, THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO THE WESTERN MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE NEAR NORMAL. IN
ALASKA, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
TROUGHING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MAINLAND. HAWAII IS FORECAST TO SEE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WITH A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER
SITTING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. .
THIS PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS AND
HAWAII DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70 PERCENT. THE ONLY AREAS WITHOUT ENHANCED ODDS FOR
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ARE THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, PART OF THE SOUTHWEST,
AND ALONG PART OF THE PACIFIC COAST. THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE CLOSEST
TO THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, SURPLUS RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT IN
CHECK IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND STRONG NORTHERLY OR ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURE ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IN CONTRAST, THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ALASKA BRINGS
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE STATE, WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOODS (OVER 60 PERCENT) IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CLOSEST
WHERE NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE THE GREATEST. WITH 500-HPA
HEIGHTS MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL, THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCE FOR
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS AREAS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RAW OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES ALL
SHOW AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER HERE, AS
DOES THE EUROPEAN REFORECAST TOOL. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE REFORECASTS
TOOLS SHOW LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL, BUT SINCE THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED 500-HPA PATTERN, THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARD ITS RAW AND REFORECAST RAINFALL OUTPUT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE EASTERN FOUR
CORNERS WHERE AN ACTIVE MONSOON IS EXPECTED, OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS
NEAR ANOMALOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX, AND IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT’S EXPECTED TO SET UP. FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST, SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC, AS WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKIES. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND OUTSIDE THE AREAS WHERE THE MOST MONSOONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED.MEANWHILE,
EXCESS PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA
CLOSEST TO A MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, AND THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII
SHOWS WEAKLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A WEAK
SUMMER PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES IN RAW AND REFORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 24 2024
THE DYNAMIC MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE ON THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WEEK-2,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
COVER THE ENTIRE CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN A PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN CONUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER SOMEWHERE
OVER THE WEST, AND A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DOWNSTREAM IN EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, HOWEVER, THE
DERIVED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AS A RIDGE BEGINS
TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE ALEUTIANS, BUT LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER THAN IN YESTERDAY’S MODELS. HAWAII REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
ONCE AGAIN, MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL,
CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND BOTH THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED MEAN TEMPERATURES FROM THE ENSEMBLES. BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE DEAMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY AND FLATTENING, ODDS FAVORING WARMTH ARE REMOVED
FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST AND MOST OF THE BIAS-CORRECTED TOOLS FROM THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE REFORECASTS SHOW
A MUCH COOLER SOLUTION WITH NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN A SWATH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT IN LINE WITH MOST INDICATORS AND DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN, SO THE WARMER SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED IN THIS FORECAST. ODDS FOR
WARMTH EXCEED 70 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR WARMTH IN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST. PART OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL,
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY
NORTH TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDERNEATH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, AND THE WEAK
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS HAWAII AGAIN WEAKLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THERE.
THE PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND MIXED ACROSS
MANY PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS UNDER A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOIST AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. A VERY SLIGHT TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TIERS OF THE CONUS BASED ON
THE TOOLS DERIVED FROM THE ENSEMBLES, WITH THE EUROPEAN REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL FAVORED. FARTHER NORTH, UNDER MORE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
MEANWHILE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ALASKA UNDER SUBNORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A MEANDERING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER, AND ALSO THROUGH HAWAII IN CONCERT WITH MOST OF THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAW, BIAS-CORRECTED, REFORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY WEAK SUMMER PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060623 - 19790717 - 19590710 - 20060720 - 19670630
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060623 - 20060719 - 19790716 - 19670630 - 19590710
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 20 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 24 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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