252
FXUS06 KWBC 111942
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 11 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2024
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
MOST MODELS PUT A MAXIMUM 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY.
THIS STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHERE THERE
IS A CLOSED 500-HPA CIRCULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 595 DM. THIS CONFIGURATION IS
ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION, OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN KEEPING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY STRONG MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN INDICATED
YESTERDAY WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH IS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM
RIDGE, AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EAST. IN ALASKA, THERE
IS AGAIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND TROUGHING
WILL COVER MOST OF THE STATE, BUT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE TODAY. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MAINLAND. HAWAII IS FORECAST
TO SEE NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, BETWEEN HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE AND SUBNORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH FORECAST IN THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS), THE PATTERN NO LONGER FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NATIONWIDE.
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COVER MOST AREAS
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD. THE GREATEST CHANCES (OVER 80 PERCENT) COVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF AROUND 90 DM ARE FORECAST. UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GREATEST IN FLORIDA (OVER 60
PERCENT), WHICH IS FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN CONTRAST, AN ELEVATED LIKELIHOOD FOR COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. ODDS FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXCEED 50 PERCENT IN PARTS
OF THE CORN BELT, JUST WEST OF THE EXPECTED 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS. IN HAWAII, THE
WEAK MID-LEVEL PATTERN SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORECAST TO
COVER ALASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE MAINLAND, WHERE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
LARGEST.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS AREAS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW ENGLAND. RAW AND
REFORECAST TOOLS DERIVED FROM THE ENSEMBLES ALL DEPICT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION COVER WESTERN TEXAS AND MOST OF THE CAROLINAS
AND SOME ADJACENT AREAS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER
NEAR THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SEPARATING THE EXPECTED
SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FROM THE ANOMALOUS
WARMTH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
AND IN A SWATH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER NEW ENGLAND. ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
INTO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER EAST SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION HERE, IN A
REGION WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING FAIR WEATHER.
MEANWHILE, EXCESS PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA CLOSEST TO A MEAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER,
AND THE FORECAST FOR HAWAII SHOWS WEAKLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE MODELS ON THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL PATTERN, TEMPERED BY A
WEAK SUMMER PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES IN RAW AND REFORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2024
THE DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WEEK-2, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY PATTERN, BUT LESS AMPLIFIED AND
WITH BROADER FEATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS COVER THE ENTIRE CONUS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. THE LARGEST 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST NEAR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING EXTENDING FARTHER EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD SIMILARLY BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND SLIGHTLY
FARTHER EAST. THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH, KEEPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE DERIVED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
SOME AREAS, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE MODELS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL OVER ALASKA AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENS. HAWAII SHOULD ALSO
SEE INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL PACIFIC, WITH THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES IN A BROAD BAND JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST, WITH THE BEST ODDS FOR WARMTH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BROADENING, DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FROM THE WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE AREA OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE A BIT SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. FARTHER SOUTH, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE GULF COAST REGION AND FLORIDA. IN ALASKA, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDERNEATH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND, WITH CONDITIONS CLOSER TO NORMAL FORECAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THE WEAK PATTERN OF BROADLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS NEAR HAWAII WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THERE.
THE PRECIPITATION SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
YESTERDAY. RAW ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FROM THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER SOUTH, SURPLUS
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT AREAS
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FOCUS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. SOME OF THE TOOLS ALSO SHOW HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FALLING ON WESTERN TEXAS, AND A MODERATE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL
PROVIDE THE SOUTHWEST WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL. THERE IS
LESS AGREEMENT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
AND THE NORTHWEST, AND THE FORECAST FAVORS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FROM THE
DISPARATE OUTPUT OF THE DERIVED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. MEANWHILE, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED THROUGHOUT ALASKA AS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE
RAW AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. HAWAII SIMILARLY HAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL GIVEN THE FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAW, REFORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY WEAK
SUMMER PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060720 - 19900712 - 19790718 - 19590711 - 20060624
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590721 - 20060719 - 19590712 - 20060623 - 19900712
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N N MAINE A B
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page