520
FXUS01 KWBC 120756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 12 2024 - 12Z SUN JUL 14 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS AND RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE SIZZLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...
A WEAK FRONT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PRODUCES HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF THE EASTER SEABOARD. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, ON FRIDAY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A NEARBY FRONT
WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. LIKEWISE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON SATURDAY, THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO, ON SATURDAY, A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL
ALLOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PRODUCE A NEAR ALL-TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD, AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LONG-DURATION HEAT WAVE REMAINS
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DEADLY IF NOT TAKEN SERIOUSLY. DOZENS OF
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND.
MOREOVER, MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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