388
FXUS01 KWBC 121959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 13 2024 - 00Z MON JUL 15 2024
...DANGEROUS AND RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE SIZZLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S....
...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NEW ENGLAND, WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND...
...MONSOON SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUSLY HOT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AS A STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. THE MOST INTENSE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FOCUS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MANY NEAR
DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 100S, AND INTO THE 110S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE DUE TO THE THREAT FROM THIS HEAT, WHICH REMAINS DANGEROUS
GIVEN THE LONGEVITY AND THE INTENSITY OF THIS HEAT WAVE. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING A BIT EASTWARD BY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
FINALLY BRING A LITTLE RELIEF TO THE REGION. POCKETS OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN, BUT HIGHS OVERALL WILL BE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES, REDUCING
THE INTENSITY OF THE HEAT AND HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
UNFORTUNATELY, AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS
BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S., AREAS OF HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL
EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, ALREADY
HOT THIS WEEK, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INTENSE HEAT IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE. HOTTER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 90S WILL ALSO BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY,
AND THEN IN THE LOW TO MID-90S ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FROM THIS HEAT WILL ONLY EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND IT WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR
YOUR AREA AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS,
POTENTIALLY DEADLY HEAT FOR MANY OF THE URBAN AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, AND WITH FLOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/5) REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AS SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY, THOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL HELP TO REINVIGORATE STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM COVERAGE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY INTO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA, WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT
RISK IS IN EFFECT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EVEN FURTHER
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY OFFSHORE
AND LEADING TO A MUCH MORE DRIER DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AS WELL AS EMBEDDED
UPPER-LEVEL WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
STORMS IN THE EVENING THAT GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. ANY CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
FLOW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY, AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, WILL ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
A MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL SET-UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOWS IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE FORECAST, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF ANY BURN SCARS.
ELSEWHERE, DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
FLORIDA AND WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST, PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN THE
HOUSTON VICINITY GIVEN MORE SENSITIVE SOILS FOLLOWING RAINFALL
FROM BERYL.
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