485
FXUS02 KWBC 130652
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2024
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 16 2024 - 12Z SAT JUL 20 2024
...HAZARDOUS HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. FOR
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. HIGH HEAT TO BUILD OVER THE WEST NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
HEAT FOCUSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY-MID
NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION TO BRING WIDESPREAD
ABOVE NORMAL TO HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO LATER NEXT WEEK WILL ACT
TO BUILD UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONTINENT. ENERGY DIGGING TO
THE LEE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL INCREASINGLY WORK DOWN INTO
DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGING AS A HEATWAVE MODERATING
COLD FRONT SINKS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S..
MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL WORK OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURE MODERATING FRONTS
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE EAST, WITH
POTENTIAL TO SINK DOWN INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATER WEEK.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THESE FRONTS. DAILY
RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES WILL LINGER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS FUELED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MID-LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH
TYPICAL SMALLER SCALE DETAILS NEEDING MORE TIME TO BE RESOLVED.
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
TRENDING IN SOME THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS WPC FORECASTS. LATEST
00 UTC CYCLE GUIDANCE OVERALL IS IN LINE WITH THIS FORECAST PLAN.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THAT
COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR STEEP TERRAIN AND
BURN SCARS. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS PLANNED
FOR DAY 4 (TUESDAY) AND DAY 5 (WEDNESDAY) FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS IN A REGION WITH PROTRACTED FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WELL DEFINED/WAVY SURFACE FRONTS
SET TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TAP, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A WPC DAY 4
(TUESDAY) MARGINAL RISK ERO IS SET ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS/CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE DAY 5 (WEDNESDAY) ERO FROM THE
MID-SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A MAIN FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. MID-NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH, AND DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST IN
FLORIDA WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MUCH OF THE NATION WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK AND A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RECORD VALUES WHILE BECOMING
DANGEROUSLY HOT FOR MANY FROM ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S.. HAZARDOUS HEAT SHOULD SLOWLY SUPPRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD WITH
TIME AS AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DIPS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES IN THE 110S ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100
WILL BE COMMON IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST MAY BE MARGINALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN, ANOMALIES TICK UPWARD
AGAIN IN A PATTERN WITH INCREASING HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM
RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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