439
FXUS01 KWBC 130758
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2024
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 13 2024 - 12Z MON JUL 15 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS AND RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE SIZZLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...
A WEAK FRONT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PRODUCES HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF THE EASTER SEABOARD. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, ON SATURDAY, A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHER, THERE
IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65
KNOTS AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST.
ON SUNDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA, CREATING SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ALSO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PRODUCE A NEAR ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD, AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS LONG-DURATION HEAT WAVE REMAINS EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS AND DEADLY IF NOT TAKEN SERIOUSLY. DOZENS OF DAILY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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