959
FXUS01 KWBC 131953
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT SAT JUL 13 2024
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 14 2024 - 00Z TUE JUL 16 2024
...THREAT FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HEAT SHIFTS FROM THE WEST TO
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S....
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
...MONSOON SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
THE HEAT WAVE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE WEST FOR OVER A WEEK WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
SITS OVERHEAD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON ARE INTO THE LOW TO MID-100S,
WITH 110S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW MORE NEAR-RECORD
TYING/BREAKING HIGHS MAY BE REACHED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
A BIT EAST ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FOR MANY AREAS AS
HIGHS DROP A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER AVERAGES.
POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE 100S WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. UNFORTUNATELY,
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS HEAT
BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE
MID-90S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MIDWEST, UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AND LOW TO MID-100S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGHER LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS
FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND HYDRATION. THE HEAT WILL
ONLY GET MORE INTENSE WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-ATLANTIC SOARS INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AND THE HEAT SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOW TO MID-90S EXPECTED. NUMEROUS NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST BY MONDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE HEAT IN URBAN AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED
DURATION (INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK) WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO
WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH TODAY (SATURDAY), SUNDAY, AND MONDAY, WITH
THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TRANSITIONING TO
PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) THROUGH LATE SATURDAY GIVEN A HIGHER
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHT RISK
IS AGAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION POSING
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AS ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BECOME WETTER WITH EACH ROUND.
A MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WITH THE UPPER-HIGH OVERHEAD HELPING TO FUNNEL IN HIGHER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER ANY BURN SCARS. ELSEWHERE, SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
SUNDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA AND WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY,
WITH THE CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED ON MONDAY.
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