479
FXUS01 KWBC 142015
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024
VALID 00Z MON JUL 15 2024 - 00Z WED JUL 17 2024
...DANGEROUS AND RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST...
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
...MONSOONAL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
A BROAD HEATWAVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BECOMING PARTICULARLY INTENSE FOR
MANY OF THE URBAN CENTERS IN THE SOUTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY, AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID-90S IN
NEW ENGLAND WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND INTO PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-90S TO LOW 100S FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE LOW TO MID-100S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AS THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
BRINGS HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. NUMEROUS
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID- TO UPPER 70S,
ALSO NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS, WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE POPULATED URBAN CENTERS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, OHIO VALLEY, AND ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE AT A
MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4/4) RISK FROM THIS HEAT, AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO EFFECTIVE COOLING AND HYDRATION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHILE THE INTENSE HEAT
WILL UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK FOR AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. IN THE WEST, AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT
FOLLOWING LAST WEEK'S HEAT WAVE, HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S, AND IN THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOW-100S.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THIS (SUNDAY) EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY, AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, PARTICULARLY FOR ONE (OR MORE)
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS
SOME LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO SUNDAY EVENING, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEN,
ON MONDAY, THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE A GREATER
THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST.
IN ADDITION, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE LEADING TO HEAVY RAIN
RATES, AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH
IN PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY, WILL BRING AN INCREASING FLASH
FLOOD RISK AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WET. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS, ONCE
AGAIN HAVING THE TENDENCY TO CLUSTER AND REPEAT OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS IN PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT, WILL BRING ANOTHER RISK OF
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ELSEWHERE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A MONSOONAL PATTERN REMAINS
IN PLACE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND THE RISK
OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR ANY BURN SCARS.
ELSEWHERE, SOME DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
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