307
FXUS01 KWBC 150818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2024
VALID 12Z MON JUL 15 2024 - 12Z WED JUL 17 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND AND OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TRAIL OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. ON MONDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE IS AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR
GREATER, MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, ON MONDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ON TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REDUCES SLIGHTLY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES,
AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
OHIO VALLEY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, AS THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ALSO, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER,
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN,
SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE, A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WILL AID
IN CREATING A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK FOR THE EAST PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE DEVELOPING HEAT HAS PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST, MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY HEAT, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN
AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COAST, ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MANY DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST,
AND NUMEROUS WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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