816
FXUS01 KWBC 160813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2024
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 16 2024 - 12Z THU JUL 18 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ROUGHLY EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ROUGHLY EASTWARD TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. FURTHERMORE, ON TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY,
LOWER GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIAN, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL
THREAT OF HAIL AND TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AREAS ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXTEND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO, ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER, MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL
PRODUCE LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. FURTHERMORE, ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST,
SPAWNING HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MOREOVER, A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN CREATING A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK FOR THE
EAST COAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEVELOPING HEAT HAS PROMPTED
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. A SECOND AREA OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDING FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY HEAT, PARTICULARLY FOR
URBAN AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COAST, ARE FORECAST. MANY
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST, AND NUMEROUS
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
OVERNIGHT. HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
ZIEGENFELDER
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