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FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 16 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 26 2024
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS
REMAINS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER. STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST THAT MAY ALSO BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST. OVER ALASKA, POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN HAS A LARGE DIPOLE ACROSS A FAIRLY SHORT
DISTANCE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS, WITH STRONGLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND STRONGLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
WEST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND
ARE THE RESULT OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WITH MORE MIXED
SIGNALS AS A RESULT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN WHERE A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BECOME ESTABLISHED. IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE TOOLS REGARDING A TRANSITION TO HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECENS SLOWER IN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THESE
AREAS. IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BENEATH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA MAY BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND REDUCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND, WITH NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE STATE CONSISTENT WITH
THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY DRIER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS WITH WETTER CONDITIONS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON ACTIVITY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. FURTHER EAST, A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM
INCREASE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING. NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH WEAK SIGNALS AND MIXED GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30 2024
DURING WEEK-2, MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND
500-HPA HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. POSITIVE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK
TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IN ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO EXPANDING
NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL ANOMALIES FROM THE ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER ALASKA
WITH THE ECENS SLOWER IN INTRODUCING BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO THE GEFS
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE. OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE STATE.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK MAINTAINS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE INTERIOR
WEST AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES, ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC LEADING TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES BEING
FAVORED FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ACROSS THESE REGIONS. A TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY THE MIDDLE TO
END OF WEEK-2. THEREFORE, ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN BUT
ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. STRONGLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS FLORIDA SOUTH OF ANY INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH. IN ALASKA, SIGNALS ARE QUITE MIXED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED BY MANY OF THE REFORECAST TOOLS BUT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST BY THE SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW TOOLS. THEREFORE, MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO SEE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF ALASKA
ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES WHICH MAY
INHIBIT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. FURTHER EAST, THE ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BENEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE FAVORED
OUTCOME ACROSS THE STATE WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS. IN HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH THE TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS OFFSET BY A LESS AMPLIFIED AND TRANSITORY HEIGHT
PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520705 - 19940720 - 20050715 - 19980706 - 20080717
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940720 - 19520704 - 19980707 - 19940707 - 20080716
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 26 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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