492
FXUS01 KWBC 162000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2024
VALID 00Z WED JUL 17 2024 - 00Z FRI JUL 19 2024
...RELIEF IN SIGHT FOR RECENT RECORD EAST COAST HEAT BUT HOT TEMPS
AND DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...HEAVY RAINS, ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
STRONG CENTRAL TO EASTERN FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEST OF THE ROCKIES TO THE
WEST COAST, ALONG WITH WILDFIRE RISKS...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, WHILE
AN AMPLIFIED TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA PUSHES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EAST. THIS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY, INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECENT RUN OF RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE A HOT DAY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ACROSS THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST AND EAST COAST,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK ANY RECORDS. THERE
WILL, HOWEVER, BE ONE MORE MORNING OF WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ACROSS THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST AND ALONG
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE EFFECTS FROM THE
CURRENT VERY HOT CONDITIONS AS LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF IS
EXPECTED. CURRENTLY OVER 130 MILLION PEOPLE ARE UNDER SOME FORM
OF HEAT WARNING, ADVISORY OR WATCH FROM THE EAST COAST, ACROSS THE
SOUTH, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE RECORD HIGHS MAY BE DIMINISHING ON
WEDNESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN U.S., HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND MID WEST, WITH THESE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED
TEMPERATURE RELIEF TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., THE FRONT WILL
ALSO ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN OVER A VERY LARGE REGION ON WEDNESDAY STRETCHING FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
SOUTHEAST, SOUTH, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RAINS THAT DO FALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
ARE MUCH NEEDED AS THESE REGIONS HAVE SEEN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION THIS SUMMER AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SEEING
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST. WHILE HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE RECORD BREAKERS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THESE AREAS,
WITH NO END IN SIGHT FOR THIS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REGIME.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, SAVE FOR SOME SCATTERED
MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS,
HOT TEMPS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, FIRE RISKS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ORAVEC
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