225
FXUS01 KWBC 170818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2024
VALID 12Z WED JUL 17 2024 - 12Z FRI JUL 19 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST, AND NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. ALSO,
ON FRIDAY, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A THIRD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, ON
WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD, SHOWERS AND STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
LIKEWISE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS,
AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST,
SPAWNING HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MOREOVER, A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN CREATING A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK FOR THE
EAST COAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE HEAT HAS PROMPTED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST. A
SECOND AREA OF HEAT HAS PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES
AND HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND. ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY SUGGEST MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EAST. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY HEAT,
PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COAST, ARE
FORECAST. MANY DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST,
AND NUMEROUS WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
ZIEGENFELDER
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