265  
FXUS01 KWBC 180754  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
354 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUL 18 2024 - 12Z SAT JUL 20 2024  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...  
 
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES  
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF  
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WESTERN TEXAS  
WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY.  
ALSO, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE  
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  
THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE,  
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND  
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.  
 
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH  
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING  
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE,  
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL  
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. MOREOVER,  
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
FURTHER, A THIRD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS  
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED  
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,  
LOW-LYING AREAS, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
IN ADDITION, MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL  
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN  
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING.  
ADDITIONALLY, ON THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES GOING OVER AN  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN  
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN  
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST  
VULNERABLE.  
 
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,  
GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON  
INTO LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.  
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS, AND BURN  
SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT  
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.  
 
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHWEST, SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES  
AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM  
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS  
PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF  
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGING WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD  
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO 100S FOLLOWED BY LITTLE OVERNIGHT  
RELIEF, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S REPRESENTING A 20-35  
DEGREE DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE MULTI-DAY NATURE  
OF THIS EVENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR  
PEOPLE WHO ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EFFECTS OF HEAT, SUCH  
AS YOUNG CHILDREN, OLDER ADULTS, PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC MEDICAL  
CONDITIONS, AND PREGNANT WOMEN.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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