265
FXUS01 KWBC 180754
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2024
VALID 12Z THU JUL 18 2024 - 12Z SAT JUL 20 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WESTERN TEXAS
WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY.
ALSO, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. MOREOVER,
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FURTHER, A THIRD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
LOW-LYING AREAS, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, ON THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES GOING OVER AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ON FRIDAY, THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS, AND BURN
SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHWEST, SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/WATCHES
AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS
PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGING WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO 100S FOLLOWED BY LITTLE OVERNIGHT
RELIEF, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S REPRESENTING A 20-35
DEGREE DEPARTURE FROM AVERAGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE MULTI-DAY NATURE
OF THIS EVENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR
PEOPLE WHO ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EFFECTS OF HEAT, SUCH
AS YOUNG CHILDREN, OLDER ADULTS, PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC MEDICAL
CONDITIONS, AND PREGNANT WOMEN.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab HPC Page
Main Text Page