111
FXUS01 KWBC 212000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2024
VALID 00Z MON JUL 22 2024 - 00Z WED JUL 24 2024
...EXCESSIVE, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S....
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...
....A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF HAZARDOUS, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST TODAY (SUNDAY) AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 100S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK,
FOCUSING ON PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
TO 100S. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO MID-SUMMER AVERAGES. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, HELPING TO SPREAD HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 90S. SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH WARM, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING LOWS
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST, PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, MUCH OF NEW MEXICO, SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO,
AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, WITH MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ON
MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE AS SOME OF THESE AREAS REMAIN MORE SENSITIVE
DUE TO BURN SCARS.
TO THE EAST, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AS WELL AS
EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MONDAY FROM THE ARKLATEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FURTHER EAST, MORE SCATTERED, LESS
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL STILL POSE A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING, WITH A POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR URBAN
AREAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD A BIT BY LATER
MONDAY, HELPING TO SPREAD STORM CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER-MIDWEST WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS HERE AS WELL, WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
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