474
FXSA20 KWBC 221842
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 22 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL SEE CONTINUOUS FRONTAL
PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE CHILEAN SIDE OF THE CORDILLERA AND MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OVER THE ARGENTINIAN PATAGONIA. ON MONDAY...A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET PROPAGATES OVER SOUTH CHILE AND SOUTH ARGENTINA...WHILE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THOUGH
AYSEN-CHILE AND CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO ARGENTINA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE RANGE OF 20-25MM
OVER THE DAY. SOUTHERN AYSEN INTO NORTHERN MAGALLANES CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE. SOUTH MAGALLANES
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY...THE
POTENT JET IS FURTHER EAST...AND LESS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CHILE...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET INCLINED
POSITIVELY...AS IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET...LOCATED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER SOUTHERN CHILE AND PAST ARGENTINA. AYSEN
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE NORTH MAGALLANES CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM...BOTH LOCATIONS WITH CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. ON
WEDNESDAY..THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE FURTHER
NORTH...INTO LOS LAGOS-CHILE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH CHANCE
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LOS RIOS INTO EXTREME NORTH
AYSEN. SOUTH ARAUCANIA AND NORTH LOS RIOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
FURTHER NORTH...A SEGREGATED LOW IS POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF
NORTH CHILE...WHILE AN UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS
FROM NORTH CHILE INTO NORTH ARGENTINA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENT
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. MINIMAL EFFECTS IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH CHILE ON MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY...THE SEGREGATED LOW SYSTEM PROPAGATES OVER THE ANDES AND
BEGINS ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET IS POSITIONED OVER ARGENTINA AND URUGUAY...WHERE
THE UPPER DIVERGENT SIDE IS EXPECTED. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW...AS THE SALLJ IS EXPECTED
FROM SOUTH BOLIVIA...INTO BUENOS AIRES. WITH THE SALLJ...IT WILL
BEGIN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO NORTH ARGENTINA...OF AMOUNTS OF
OVER 30-35MM...WITH MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CORDOBA
TO BUENOS AIRES-ARGENTINA. BY WEDNESDAY...FRONTOGENESIS HAS
OCCURRED OVER EASTERN ARGENTINA...AND A COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING
OVER BUENOS AIRES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER DIVERGENT
CONDITIONS HAVE AMPLIFIED OVER URUGUAY AND ARGENTINA...WITH THE
UPPER LOW BECOMING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BUENOS AIRES CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OTHER REGION WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS THE TROPICAL
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. ON MONDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER GUYANA
CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM GUYANA TO SOUTH VENEZUELA. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE PROPAGATES INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ANOTHER WAVE IS ENTERING NORTHEAST
PARA-BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER VENEZUELA IS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE COUNTRY AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25M...INTO COLOMBIA...AND
VENEZUELA. WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS FRENCH
GUIANA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN AMAPA AND
PORTIONS OF PARA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EAST SURINAME AND
FRENCH GUIANA.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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