868   
FXSA20 KWBC 231846  
PMDSA   
  
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2024  
  
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/  
  
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 23 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:  
  
THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENT IS  
PRESENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER  
BRASIL...AND EXTENDING INTO BOLIVIA...AND PARAGUAY. LOW MOISTURE  
CONTENT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND THUS PRECIPITATION OVER THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO PASSING TROUGHS AND WAVES...AND TO THE SOUTH  
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS ENTERING THE  
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA.  
  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CHILE IS  
FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA AS A SHORT  
WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED JET BY THE END OF THE FIRST DAY. IN  
THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SALLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO BUENOS  
AIRES-ARGENTINA WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF  
15-30MM...WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THESE  
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION AND COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN ARGENTINA...INTO SOUTHERN URUGUAY  
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM EASTERN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY...EXPECT  
MAXIMA OF 15- 25MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON  
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DRY WITH THE PASSING  
OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
  
IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA...FRONTAL PASSAGES AND  
SUPPORT FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND JETS WILL FAVOR THE DYNAMICS  
FOR PRECIPITATION IN CHILE AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF WEST ARGENTINA.  
ON TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN CONE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHS...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ASSIST WITH THE  
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THROUGH THE SOUTH  
PORTIONS OF CHILE AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IN THE SUR REGION OF  
CHILE...SOUTH AYSEN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM WITH BOTH REGIONS  
SEEING MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
ENTERS INTO CHILE...WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH  
INTO LOS RIOS. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO  
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE. CENTRAL PORTIONS  
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT LOWER AMOUNTS OF  
15-25MM. THESE REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY  
THURSDAY EVENING...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER IN  
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHILE. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS OF  
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LOS LAGOS AND NORTH  
AYSEN WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.  
  
ACOSTA...(WPC)  
  
  
 
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