868
FXSA20 KWBC 231846
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 23 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENT IS
PRESENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
BRASIL...AND EXTENDING INTO BOLIVIA...AND PARAGUAY. LOW MOISTURE
CONTENT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND THUS PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO PASSING TROUGHS AND WAVES...AND TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JETS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CHILE IS
FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED JET BY THE END OF THE FIRST DAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SALLJ IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO BUENOS
AIRES-ARGENTINA WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS IN THE REGION AND COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN ARGENTINA...INTO SOUTHERN URUGUAY
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM EASTERN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15- 25MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DRY WITH THE PASSING
OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
IN THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA...FRONTAL PASSAGES AND
SUPPORT FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND JETS WILL FAVOR THE DYNAMICS
FOR PRECIPITATION IN CHILE AND EXTREME PORTIONS OF WEST ARGENTINA.
ON TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN CONE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ASSIST WITH THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THROUGH THE SOUTH
PORTIONS OF CHILE AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IN THE SUR REGION OF
CHILE...SOUTH AYSEN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM WITH BOTH REGIONS
SEEING MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERS INTO CHILE...WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH
INTO LOS RIOS. AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CHILE. CENTRAL PORTIONS
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT LOWER AMOUNTS OF
15-25MM. THESE REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHILE. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LOS LAGOS AND NORTH
AYSEN WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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