218
FXUS01 KWBC 241912
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2024
VALID 00Z THU JUL 25 2024 - 00Z SAT JUL 27 2024
...MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS HEAT GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS INTENSE OVER
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PROBABLE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES TO THE EAST COAST...
...SCATTERED TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS/INTERIOR NORTHEAST TONIGHT...
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH THREATS OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING; FIRE WEATHER DANGER EMERGES OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST...
A SLOW-TO-EVOLVE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.S. MAINLAND WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN, UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS INTENSE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THE HEAT DOME EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 100S TO NEAR
110 AT THE HOTTEST LOCATION OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, THE HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS INTENSE OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH TIME. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AS THE HEAT SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
COOLER AIR ARRIVING BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
MEANWHILE, LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADDITION, MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ MOUNTAINS, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERT AND CAUSE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING DUST.
IN CONTRAST TO THE HEAT IN THE WEST, COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. WHERE A STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP INTO SEVERE
STORMS BY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BUT THEY COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES AS WELL AS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THERE'S A
PERSISTENT SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE REOCCURRING.
A COASTAL FRONT INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW COULD SET OFF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS
PROBABLE. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FROM TEXAS' EASTERN GULF COAST INTO
LOUISIANA'S WESTERN COAST TONIGHT AND THEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
INTO TEXAS' CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MAINE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEBEDE/KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page