315
FXUS01 KWBC 260701
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 26 2024 - 12Z SUN JUL 28 2024
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY IN THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...STORM CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COUPLE UPPER-LEVEL WAVES, ONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME LOCALLY MORE WIDESPREAD,
INTENSE DOWNPOURS ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS. WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, WITH
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST MORE BROADLY ACROSS
THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRESENCE OF STORMS AND
GENERAL CLOUDINESS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
SUMMER-TIME AVERAGES, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE A
PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HELPS TO ENCOURAGE MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ON SATURDAY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BRINGING INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS, PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RATHER HOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S UPWARDS OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
MONSOONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. DEEP
MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME
LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS
SUCH AS BURN SCARS. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GENERALLY
BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
ROCKIES, AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, AND 60S AND 70S ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE MUCH HOTTER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-110S. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE PRESENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH LOW TO MID-80S FORECAST. HIGHS WILL WARM UP A BIT ON
SATURDAY, REACHING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 80S.
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