936
FXUS01 KWBC 270739
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2024
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 27 2024 - 12Z MON JUL 29 2024
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RISK FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING...
...HOT WEATHER IS IN STORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY...
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND IN THE PRESENCE
OF VERY MOIST, SOUTHERLY GULF FLOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL ENCOURAGE STORMS OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST OF TEXAS WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS LEFT WETTER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, THOUGH AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD RISK WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, HELPING TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER THREAT OF SOME
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SUMMER-TIME AVERAGES, ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID- TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL GULF/ATLANTIC COASTS AND INTO FLORIDA.
TO THE NORTH, A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARRIVING OVER THE REGION HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WILL PROMOTE SOME MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THEN, ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT
APPROACHES MINNESOTA. INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS AND FLASH
FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, MORE ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR SOME LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S
TO LOW 90S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND MID- TO UPPER
90S INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MORE MONSOONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND SOUTHWEST. LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS
SUCH AS BURN SCARS. STORM CHANCES WILL COME DOWN AS UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH A LINGERING
CHANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST
HIGHS BROADLY ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE AT OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE 80S AND 90S FOR INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES, AND 100S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EAST TO THE EAST COAST BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY AS THE
PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WHILE A COASTAL LOW COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- TO UPPER
80S.
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