053
FXUS01 KWBC 281925
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2024
VALID 00Z MON JUL 29 2024 - 00Z WED JUL 31 2024
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...
...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...
...DANGEROUS MID-SUMMER HEAT WAVE TO BEGIN EXPANDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON MONDAY...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
PASSING OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR
MORE NUMEROUS STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL, WITH VERY MOIST, SOUTHERLY
GULF FLOW LEADING TO SOME LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF
SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WHERE
STORMS MAY HAVE THE TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD/REPEAT OVER AREAS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES EAST ON MONDAY, THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SPREAD FURTHER
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES BROADLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL REMAIN AT OR A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND STORMS, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING STORM CHANCES TO THESE
REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME MORE INTENSE, ORGANIZED
STORMS. INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA, CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING MAY BRING
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
EXPANDING COVERAGE OF STORMS HEADING EASTWARD, AS WELL AS
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDS FROM PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE RATHER HOT, RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND SOARING HIGHER EACH DAY EARLY THIS
WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXPANDING TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A
FEW NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS, WATCHES, AND
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BE SURE TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND
CHECK ON VULNERABLE INDIVIDUALS.
AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY RANGE
BETWEEN THE 60S AND 70S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST; 70S AND 80S IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST; 80S AND 90S IN THE GREAT BASIN, FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA; AND THE 100S INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME MONSOONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SHOWER
CHANCES HERE AS WELL. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE PARTS OF THE WEST, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES, RESULTING IN POOR AIR QUALITY AND AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL BE TRENDING HOTTER ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH 80S AND LOW 90S FORECAST. A COASTAL
LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS LIKELY TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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