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FXCA20 KWBC 291852
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICS WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. PER THE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THERE IS AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH HAS NEAR ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT 50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND A 80 PERCENT CHANCE
THROUGH 7 DAYS. THERE IS ACTUALLY ONE MORE TROPICAL WAVE WITH
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ALSO HAS A NEAR
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND 30 PERCENT THROUGH 7 DAYS...BUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR 120W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM
OUR FORECAST AREA.
EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES OR DISTURBANCES BEING
MONITORED...OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...SOME
ISOLATED SECTIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COULD OBSERVE 3-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 75 AND 150MM.
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. THERE IS SOME LINGERING SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY. AS FAR
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC AND GULF
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE WITH A FEW PATCHES OF BOTH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST IN THE ATLANTIC MOVING
IN...THERE IS ALSO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND THE SAHARAN DUST MOVING IN. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF RAIN
COULD INCREASE FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND THE GREATER ANTILLES
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AS FAR AS DAILY RAINFALL...THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST 3-DAY
TOTALS ARE ALSO THE AREAS THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO HAVE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DAILY AMOUNTS. WESTERN TO SOUTHERN MEXICO WOULD HAVE
DAILY MAX VALUES TODAY INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD SURPASS 50MM ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS. ALSO A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA COULD
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLOMBIA INTO VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAX VALUES OF OVER 50MM AS
WELL. MOST OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION WOULD OBSERVE
MAX VALUES OF AROUND 40MM OR LESS. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
INDICATES A SIMILAR STORY...EXCEPT SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE THE LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH LESS
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAN THE DAY PRIOR. THAT BEING
SAID...WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BE PARTICULARLY RAINY FOR
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA...TO MANY SECTORS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED MAX VALUES TO AS MUCH
AS...OR EVEN OVER...100MM ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND VARIOUS
SECTORS OF COSTA RICA. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE RAINFALL
OVER MEXICO WILL BE LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMA NEAR 35MM OVER WESTERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO.
MEANWHILE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA
COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 50MM. ON THIS DAY...THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BEGINS TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING A DAILY MAX VALUE OF 30MM OR
SO FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES SHOW A MUCH LARGER COVERAGE AREA OF RAIN...EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN MAY
DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS WEEK.
ALAMO...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
CLARKE...(CINWS)
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