067
FXSA20 KWBC 291938
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 29 JUL 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
ON MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN
BRASIL...AND EXTENDS WEST OVER PERU...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
BOLIVIA. OF NOTE ON MONDAY IS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PERU AND LOCATED IN CENTRAL BOLIVIA BY
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG THE ANDEAN MOUNTAINS IN PERU
AND BOLIVIA...AS MOISTURE CONVERGES ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGE.
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL HAVE DISSIPATED IN PERU AND BOLIVIA...AND TRACE AMOUNTS TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE EXTREME NORTH AND OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN DESK
DOMAIN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
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TO THE SOUTH...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED RIGHT
BEHIND...MAKING IT INTO THE CONTINENT BY MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS OF LESS THAN 25MM ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN CHILE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WITH
RAIN TO SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING...WITH A STRONG JET TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...DEEPENING IT BY TUESDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN CHILE ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE WARMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE
PATAGONIA REGION IN ARGENTINA. THE SOUTHERN REGION OF CHILE CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN THE SOUTHERN PATAGONIA...EXPECT SNOWFALL MAX OF
10CM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CONFIDENT IN
RESOLVING THE IMPACT OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME
INTO THE CENTRAL REGION OF CHILE. ALTHOUGH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DESCRIBING THE DIVERGENT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF CHILE...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL
REGION...AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF OVER 25MM IN THE REGION...THE MAXIMA OF PRECIPITATION
DIFFER IN THE LOCATION. A LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PRESENT ALONG THE
COAST IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH...WITH
WINDS OF AROUND 55KT OFFSHORE AYSEN. THE JET WILL FAVOR THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH...FROM
MAULE TO LOS RIOS EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW. FROM LOS LAGOS TO NORTH AYSEN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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