721
FXUS01 KWBC 300800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2024
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 30 2024 - 12Z THU AUG 01 2024
...DAILY SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST...
...DANGEROUS MID-SUMMER HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND SOUTHEAST; MORE HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE WEST...
AN ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LOWER 48 AS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH ACCESS TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEADS TO REPEAT BOUTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY THREAT
OF SCATTERED (LEVEL 2/5) FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. DAILY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CHANCES
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIED TO THE MONSOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ASIDE, HEAT WILL BECOME THE BIG STORY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH UPPER-90S TO LOW 100S TO THE WEST OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS, AND MID-TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-110 DEGREE RANGE, POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 115 FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE. WARM MORNING LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER
70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST, HIGHER HEAT
INDICES TO THE EAST, AND THE MULTI-DAY DURATION OF THIS HEAT WAVE
WILL INCREASE THE DANGER NOT ONLY TO MORE SENSITIVE GROUPS, BUT
ALSO THE GENERAL PUBLIC, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE AIR
CONDITIONING.
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, A TROUGHING PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
COOL WEATHER OVER THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD WARM
WEATHER BY THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY PACIFIC FRONT WASHES AWAY
BENEATH WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, WE
CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90'S AND TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST WHICH COULD CHALLENGE NUMEROUS RECORDS ACROSS THE
REGION. UNFORTUNATELY, SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PARTS OF THE WEST, PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN POOR AIR QUALITY AND
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
ASHERMAN/SNELL
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