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FXCA20 KWBC 301852
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 30 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS MONITORING A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICS WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. PER THE NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THERE IS AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR 52W...WHICH HAS NEAR ZERO PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT 60
PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
HAS NOW A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH
48 HOURS AND ALSO 7 DAYS.
THAT BEING SAID...OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS ISOLATED SECTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. BASED ON THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...SOME ISOLATED SECTIONS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COULD OBSERVE 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
75 AND 125MM.
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IT IS SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NHC IS
MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO SOME
LINGERING SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC...AND ENCOMPASSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE...WILL REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
STILL PRESENT IN AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC AND
GULF COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE...EVEN IF IT IS NOT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE...IT IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL HAVE NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE ATLANTIC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...THERE IS ALSO ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE WITH SAID TROPICAL WAVE. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES
OF RAIN COULD INCREASE FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ONE THING TO NOTE...IS THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT OVER THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN PENINSULA AND INTO
THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
ELEVATION...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE INDICATING ISOLATED MAX TOTALS NEAR 25MM TO AS MUCH AS 100MM.
WHICH IS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITY...BECAUSE THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF
THE SAHARAN DUST YET HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING. WE WILL SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WITH EACH
PASSING DAY AND WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE
CLOSELY. BUT OVER 100MM OF RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. THAT BEING SAID...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WE ARE
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE AND PUTTING UP TO 40MM IN THE FORECAST AS
THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THE TIME.
AS FAR AS DAILY RAINFALL...THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST 3-DAY
TOTALS...WHICH WERE MENTIONED ABOVE...ARE ALSO THE AREAS THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED TO HAVE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAILY AMOUNTS...WITH
PERHAPS HISPANIOLA BEING AN EXCEPTION AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN COULD
OCCUR ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WESTERN TO SOUTHERN MEXICO WOULD
HAVE DAILY MAX VALUES TODAY THAT COULD SURPASS 50MM ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS. WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD OBSERVE AS MUCH AS 100MM
TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MODEL...WHILE VENEZUELA IS FORECAST
MAX VALUES OF UP TO 60MM TODAY. MOST OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL REGION WOULD OBSERVE MAX VALUES OF AROUND 40MM OR LESS
TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BE
PARTICULARLY RAINY FOR SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...MAINLY OVER A
FEW SECTORS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THE LATEST MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED MAX VALUES UP TO 70MM ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA AND VARIOUS SECTORS OF COSTA RICA. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THE RAINFALL OVER MEXICO WILL BE LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA NEAR 35MM OVER WESTERN MEXICO INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO. MEANWHILE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA
COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 70MM. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...OTHER THAN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER
HISPANIOLA...NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO HAVE A
DAILY MAX VALUE OF UP TO 40MM ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...WHILE WEST CENTRAL COLOMBIA COULD HAVE AS
MUCH AS 60MM. PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE UP TO
80MM ON THURSDAY. AS WE MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE DAILY MAX RAINFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 35MM...THEN UP TO 40MM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MEXICO.
ALAMO...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
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