736
FXSA20 KWBC 301856
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 30 JUL 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
CHILE...EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CFS
MODEL IS FORECASTING A DIVERGENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A
DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO AND A PASSING KELVIN WAVE IN THE EAST
PACIFIC AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA FROM TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ASSISTING IN DEEPENING THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ENTERING CHILE ON TUESDAY...AND EXTENDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN AUSTRAL REGION OF REGION. THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN ARGENTINIAN REGION AND FAVORS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON
TUESDAY EXPECT...SOUTH CENTRAL CHILE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHERN SANTA
CRUZ-ARGENTINA CAN EXPECT SNOW MAXIMA OF 10CM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES CHILE...AND THE ENTRANCE OF THE
UPPER JET ENTERS THE CONTINENT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE JET ENTRANCE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN CENTRAL CHILE. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE CHILEAN SIDE OF THE ANDES. A LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXPECTED TO
ADVECT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL
CHILE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR
SOUTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AND UNTIL WHAT POINT
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INHIBIT THE PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH...FOR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM O'HIGGINS TO
SOUTHERN LOS RIOS...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FROM LOS LAGOS TO NORTH AYSEN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENTERING THE CHILE
REGION BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE NORTHERN JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL CHILE
REGION...FROM SOUTHERN ANTOFAGASTA TO NORTHERN BIO BIO. THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF CHILE CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL...WHILE THE
COASTAL REGIONS CAN EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN. THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY INTO THIS DAY...AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE ENTRANCE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FROM
COASTAL COQUIMBO...TO NORTHERN LOS LAGOS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF COQUIMBO
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOS
LAGOS AND NORTH AYSEN...WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
TROPICAL REGION...WHILE THE NORTHERN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DESKS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM PER DAY IN
THE COLOMBIA/NORTHERN BRASIL OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF BRASIL...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO MOIST PLUMES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
10-20MM...WITH TUESDAY EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF BRASIL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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