726
FXUS01 KWBC 302029
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2024
VALID 00Z WED JUL 31 2024 - 00Z FRI AUG 02 2024
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE SOUTHEAST.
A FRONT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL AID IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ALSO, THERE IS
A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 65 KNOTS, OR GREATER
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
HAIL TWO INCHES, OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
AS THE WAVE OF LOW-PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. MOREOVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUST OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THESE AREAS
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
SIMILARLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON THURSDAY, THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THEREFORE, ON THURSDAY, THE SPC ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
LIKEWISE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AID IN CREATING INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK, WHERE SEVERAL
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH WILL FOSTER EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS/
HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE
SOUTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED DANGEROUS HEAT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 100F AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 110F, PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. MULTIPLE DAYS
OF MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE LEVELS OF HEAT MEAN HEALTH
IMPACTS BECOME MORE LIKELY IN GENERAL, AND MAY OCCUR IN ANYONE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR COOLING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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