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FXCA20 KWBC 311904
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 31 JUL 2024 AT 1845 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62W THAT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS...THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND COULD IMPACT THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ESPECIALLY OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS THAT COULD BE NEAR
70MM...THOUGH HI RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE
EVEN HIGHER ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL HAITI.
THAT BEING SAID...OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS ISOLATED SECTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA. BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...SOME ISOLATED SECTIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
COULD OBSERVE 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 75 AND 125MM.
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND
IT IS SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NHC IS MONITORING FOR
POTENTIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO SOME LINGERING
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC...AND ENCOMPASSING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS CONCENTRATION AS IT MOVES WEST. AS
FAR AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT
IN AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ...AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC AND GULF COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS INCREASING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AS THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT OVER CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
ELEVATION...COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. EVEN IF THERE IS
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA...THE SHARP INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. IN GENERAL...UP TO 70MM OF RAIN COULD BE OBSERVED OVER
HAITI ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD
NOT BE RULED OUT.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...OUTSIDE OF HISPANIOLA...THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE AREAS COULD HAVE 3-DAY TOTAL
RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF 75-150MM OVER WESTERN PANAMA INTO EASTERN
COSTA RICA...WITH OTHER AREAS NEARBY OBSERVING UP TO 125MM OR SO.
EASTERN NICARAGUA COULD OBSERVE UP TO 100MM OVER THE 3-DAY
PERIOD...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO OVER JALISCO AND
GUERRERO.
ALAMO...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
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