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FXUS06 KWBC 311957
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 31 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10 2024
TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE CHUKCHI SEA
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. ANOTHER TROUGH
WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST, WHERE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH AND ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION) AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY THE
DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80% FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, DUE TO A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, UNDER A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
CONSISTENT WITH SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OF THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR
HAWAII, UNDERNEATH WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR-TO-ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS, CONSISTENT
WITH REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE TROPICS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, UNDER ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW OR CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, AS PREDICTED BY THE AUTO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING WEEK-2, ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE
GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A STRONG RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN CONUS, UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST BLEND OF TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, UNDER PREDICTED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OR ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MANUAL
BLEND AND MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO THE ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, UNDER WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
NEAR-TO-ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS IN WEEK-2,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA
AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, UNDER ENHANCED ONSHORE AND CYCLONIC FLOW,
WHILE NEAR-TO-BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER RISING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BASED ON THE AUTOBLEND, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19630715 - 19960804 - 19880805 - 19830814 - 19800729
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19630715 - 19960804 - 19950806 - 19880806 - 19830813
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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