768
FXUS01 KWBC 312017
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
416 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2024
VALID 00Z THU AUG 01 2024 - 00Z SAT AUG 03 2024
...DANGEROUS HEATWAVE EXPANDS FROM THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER HEATWAVE DEVELOPS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WEST...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY INTO THURSDAY...
...ANOTHER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TODAY IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
... LOCALLY HEAVY MONSOONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHWEST...
WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEK AS ONE HEATWAVE EXPANDS FROM THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER HEATWAVE
BEGINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN-TIER OF THE U.S., WITH FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOW
TO MID-100S OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND MID- TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-
TO UPPER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES SOARING INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING AS HIGH AS 115, AND MANY HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES
TO THE WEST AND HIGH HEAT INDICES TO THE EAST, AS WELL AS VERY
WARM MORNING LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 70S, WILL
BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE AIR
CONDITIONING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY DOWN A BIT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE WEST AS WELL. THIS WILL
QUICKLY CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE WEST TO RISE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITH 100S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THE
WEEKEND. SIMILAR TO AREAS FURTHER EAST, MANY HEAT-RELATED WATCHES
AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS THIS HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS TO
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE AIR CONDITIONING. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PARTS OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
HAZY CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR QUALITY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD, BRINGING A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE, STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, AND
ACCOMPANYING STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SOME MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) OVER THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE
THREATS OF STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL, WITH A BROADER SLIGHT RISK
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO COVER THE THREATS OF STRONG
WIND POTENTIAL IN BOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ANY
SUPERCELLS OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, OHIO, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS BRING THE POTENTIAL
OF DROPPING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF ILLINOIS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
CONCENTRATES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE/COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A
HEIGHTENED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GIVEN THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
HISTORIC AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL AS FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES, MOST LIKELY OVER MAINE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOLLOWING THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH HUMIDITY PRODUCING SOME MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ALONG WITH THE HEAT.
DAILY MONSOONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AND
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN PLACE FOR A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE BROADLY IN THE REGION
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COMPARED TO
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
COASTAL CALIFORNIA, MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE 90S TO LOW 100S
FOR INTERIOR CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND MID- TO
UPPER 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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