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FXCA20 KWBC 011344
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
944 AM EDT THU AUG 01 2024
WEEKLY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 01/12UTC: A
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS JUST PASSED ACROSS PR/USVI AND THE
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS IS NOW AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND PR/USVI TODAY...THOUGH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN PR WOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH...AND THE RAINFALL PATTERN FOR FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO
BE THAT OF A TYPICAL DIURNAL AND LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. IN
TERMS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 2.3 INCHES...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT THE
OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND THE RAINFALL PATTERN
OVER PR IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
PR...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECT THE USVI. GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WITH
SAHARAN DUST...THE DAYS WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EGDI
ALGORITHM DOES SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE ALGORITHM DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THEREAFTER.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS EACH DAY WILL ALSO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST OF ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL TO 5 DAYS IS SUGGESTING NEARLY 6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT WOULD BE WITHIN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...AS OF FROM TODAY INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO HAVE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALONG WITH THE USVI...WITH TOTALS NEAR
1-2 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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