743
FXUS06 KWBC 011902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2024
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A TROUGH CENTERED IN THE CHUKCHI SEA
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTH
PACIFIC. ANOTHER TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD
TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST, DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO A PREDICTED
RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, CONSISTENT WITH SHORT-TERM
BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
NEAR-TO-ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKE REGION WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS),
CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE TROPICS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS,
UNDER ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW OR CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO A PREDICTED RIDGE AND
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
AS PREDICTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2024
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. DURING WEEK-2, ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE
GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING
FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN CONUS, UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST, UNDER NEAR-TO-BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BLEND OF TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, UNDER PREDICTED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOBLEND AND
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO THE
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, UNDER WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEAR-TO-ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS IN WEEK-2,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS, UNDER ENHANCED ONSHORE AND CYCLONIC FLOW, WHILE NEAR-TO-BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER RISING POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BASED ON THE AUTOBLEND, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800729 - 19630716 - 19880806 - 19960804 - 19830814
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19630715 - 19960807 - 19800729 - 20080717 - 20050717
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2024
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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