305
FXUS01 KWBC 012002
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2024
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 02 2024 - 00Z SUN AUG 04 2024
...DANGEROUS HEAT ENGULFS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AS ONE HEATWAVE
CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER HEATWAVE INTENSIFIES AND
AFFECTS INTERIOR AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
...STORMY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY MONSOONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHWEST...
WIDESPREAD, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THE HEAT RISK METRIC SHOWS THAT
MOST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE UNDER THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR THE
THREAT OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMONPLACE. FORTUNATELY, THE APPROACH
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LOWER THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
NORTHEAST WILL SEE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- UPPER
80S FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN-TIER OF THE U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW 100S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER 90S FOR
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE, POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS
115 FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH MANY AREAS
UNDER HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES/HIGH HEAT INDICES, AS WELL AS VERY WARM MORNING LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 70S, WILL BE DANGEROUS TO
ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE AIR CONDITIONING. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THE HEAT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO WANE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD, SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE WEST 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE MID-SUMMER AVERAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
100-110 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE HIGH PLAINS. MANY NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. SIMILAR TO AREAS FURTHER
EAST, MANY HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AS THIS HEAT WILL ALSO REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR THE GENERAL
PUBLIC. IN FACT, THE HEAT RISK INDEX IS SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY APPROACH THE
EXTREME CATEGORY ON FRIDAY, WHERE HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PARTS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR QUALITY, AND
THE RISK FOR MORE WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE AS THE HOT, DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO. GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BUT REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST INTO THE EASTWARD OHIO VALLEY, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING THE RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THREAT, FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
NORTHEAST WILL HAVE A RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME AS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
PERSISTENT MONSOONAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY OVER TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS.
SIMILAR TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE
BROADLY IN THE REGION WILL BE TRENDING WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE,
WITH 90S AND LOW 100S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, AND MID-100S TO LOW 110S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WILDER
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