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FXCA20 KWBC 012152
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
551 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 AUG 2024 AT 2130 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) CONTINUES TO MONITOR A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 77W WHICH IS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN GIVEN A 30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS. THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT REGION OF THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED WEST OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...NAMED CARLOTTA. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE SOON BUT IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST AND REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA
WITH A GOOD TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY ACROSS THE
EAST PACIFIC...THIS ONE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN GIVEN A 30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND 90% CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH HAITI IS CAUSING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
GLM INDICATES VERY COLD CLOD TOPS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HAITI...AS WELL AS SOME SECTIONS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD BE OBSERVED
OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED VALUES POSSIBLY SURPASSING 75MM.
GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENTATION OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA...ISOLATED MAX AMOUNTS OF UP TO 125MM WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES BY TONIGHT...AND FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST INTO CUBA.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER
CUBA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
COLOMBIA. EASTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO
OBSERVE 3-DAY TOTALS OF AROUND 100 TO 150MM...WHILE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
NICARAGUA...COULD OBSERVE AMOUNTS NEAR 50 TO 100MM. ISOLATED
SECTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO ARE FORECAST AROUND 30 TO 60MM OF RAIN
OVER THE 3-DAY PERIOD...BUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COULD
OBSERVE ASL MUCH AS 75 TO 100MM OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALAMO...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
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