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FXCA20 KWBC 021902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EDT FRI AUG 02 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 AUG 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS NOW ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
WHAT IS KNOWN AS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE (PTC) FOUR. THIS PTC
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OVER CUBA AND MOVE INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST GULF OF
MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PTC WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CUBA TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
ORDER OF 20-45MM OR SO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THAT
BEING SAID...DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK...FEEDER
BANDS INTO THIS STORM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA WHEN THE
SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER AREA THAT PTC
FOUR COULD AFFECT IS THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS AROUND 30-60MM...WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CARLOTTA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT LAND AREAS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA WITH A
GOOD TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY ACROSS THE EAST
PACIFIC...THIS ONE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HAS BEEN GIVEN A 40% CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND 90% CHANCE OF FORMATION
THROUGH 7 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...THERE ARE OTHER AREAS
THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER
THAN THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PTC FOUR...SEVERAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO COULD OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED 3-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 50-100MM. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THE DEEPEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LOCATED
ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND IN AND AROUND THE TROPICAL OR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES. THEREFORE...THE DEEP MOISTURE
REACHING SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH INTERACT WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND CAUSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO AFFECT WESTERN COLOMBIA...AND IN LOWER
CAPACITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...DUE ONCE AGAIN TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING...WITH MOST OF ITS RAINFALL OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
THE CARIBBEAN REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AFTER PTC FOUR MOVES
NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS IS BECAUSE A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL TRANSPORT SOME SAHARAN DUST.
THIS SAHARAN DUST WILL BE MOVING IN WITH DRIER AIR...LOWERING THE
CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THERE ARE
HOWEVER A FEW TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL
REGION...ONE OF THEM INTO THE CARIBBEAN...BUT THE DRY AIR AND
SAHARAN DUST...WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WILL NOT
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THESE TROPICAL WAVES TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AS THEY IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR THAT REASON...FOR
THE MOST PART THE CARIBBEAN REGION WILL OBSERVE FAIRLY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALAMO...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
JACKMAN (BMS)
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