540
FXUS01 KWBC 022011
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT FRI AUG 02 2024
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 03 2024 - 00Z MON AUG 05 2024
...A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE FOR REGIONS IN THE PACIIFC
NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS...
...STORMY CONDITIONS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYLONE FOUR WILL BRING HAZARDOUS RAINFALL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES TO FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SHORT TERM CONSISTS OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
RISK POSSIBLE IN SEVERAL AREAS, FOCUSING IN ON THE APPALACHAINS,
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS UP TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME EMBEDED HEAVY RAIN
IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION WILL HAVE AN OPPOSITE
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LEADS TO HOT TEMPERATURES, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE DANGEROUS. THE GREAT PLAINS, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
100-110F RANGE WITH AN ACCOMPANIED MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK INTO
SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONS SHOUD BE TAKEN FOR HEAT AS THE DOG DAYS OF
SUMMER ARE CERTAINLY LIVING UP TO THE REPUTATION. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST, ISOLATED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.
THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST WILL BE ALSO QUITE WARM AND HUMID.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LOWS
100S IN TEXAS, COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS, WILL LEAD TO A MAJOR
HEAT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREAS MENTIONED AND HEAT ADVISORIES
AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ISOLATED THUDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF
COAST, BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO BE HAD.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, A HAIL AND WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ALLUDED TO ABOVE. THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SEASONAL MONSOON AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN THE TROPICS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITATED
ADVISORIES ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER CUBA. IT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TOWARD THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UP TO AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK, IT DOES APPEAR
THERE WILL BE IMPACTS FELT ACROSS FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND IN THE
SHORT RANGE PERIOD. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR NOW. THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE UP TO A FOOT. TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER BANDS OF THE STORM
WILL POSSES THE THREAT TO DROP A TORNADO OR A WATERSPOUT.
WILDER
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