382
FXUS01 KWBC 032048
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
447 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2024
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 04 2024 - 00Z TUE AUG 06 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST,
AND SOUTHWEST TIP OF FLORIDA ON SATURDAY EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST
COAST TO SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY EVENING...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE
SOUTHWEST, AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE GULF COASTâ€
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY, WILL BRING HAZARDOUS RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, AND
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE INUNDATION TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THEN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COAST TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COAST TO
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND A SECOND
AREA OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND A SECOND
AREA OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY, WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GO SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST TO OHIO VALLEY AND THEN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT BASIN,
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER DAY OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
THE NORTHWEST, WITH AREAS OF MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEATRISK
BEFORE THE HEAT GETS LESS INTENSE NEXT WEEK. THE FOCUS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, WHERE IT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE HEAT WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. THE DEVELOPING
HIGH-PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MAINTAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS INCREASE AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND NEW
POTENTIAL WILDFIRES.
MOREOVER, A HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PLAINS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED
105 DEGREES AT THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS.
FURTHER, INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST FOR NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 100S ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK. THE HEAT AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DOWN
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MOREOVER, WHAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, MOVING TO THE
APALACHEE BAY AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE APALACHEE BAY AREA ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
LIKEWISE, ON MONDAY, WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS
MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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