204
FXUS01 KWBC 040749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT SUN AUG 04 2024
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 04 2024 - 12Z TUE AUG 06 2024
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGINNING
TODAY...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT
TRACKS ALONG FLORIDA'S GULF COAST TODAY. DEBBY MAY INTENSIFY INTO
A HURRICANE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR FLORIDA'S
BIG BEND REGION, WHERE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LIFE
THREATENING STORM-SURGE INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA'S GULF COAST FROM ARIPEKA TO INDIAN PASS. STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED INFRASTRUCTURE
ALONG THE STORM'S PATH. THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS, WHICH DEPICT SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE DAYS. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE
BULK OF DEBBY'S PRECIP SHIELD WILL CAUSE IMPACTS. DEBBIE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW AND CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TO HISTORIC FLASH, URBAN
AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF COASTAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO HURRICANES.GOV
ELSEWHERE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING STORMS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THERE'S A
SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS, THE
ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE TO NEW
ENGLAND WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
EFFECT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OUT AHEAD OF THE
DESCENDING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. NUMEROUS WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY TIE OR BREAK EXISTING RECORDS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MONSOONAL RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER VULNERABLE SURFACES INCLUDING BURN
SCARS AND SLOT CANYONS.
KEBEDE
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