113
FXUS01 KWBC 042053
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
452 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2024
VALID 00Z MON AUG 05 2024 - 00Z WED AUG 07 2024
..TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, THE EASTERN GULF COAST, AND
SOUTHEAST...
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY EVENING AND
NORTHEAST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST AND HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION, MAKING
LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A THREAT OF A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE ALONG A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA S EASTERN GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEVERE, WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT EXPERIENCE FLASH
FLOODING WILL FLOOD. LIVES AND PROPERTY ARE IN GREAT DANGER FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MOREOVER, AS T. S. DEBBY MOVES CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS. IN ADDITION, SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEBBY OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY, THE SPC CONTINUES WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA
TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
SIMILARLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON TUESDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY,
CREATING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
SPAWNING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE HEAT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
THE DEVELOPING HIGH-PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS
INCREASE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND
NEW POTENTIAL WILDFIRES.
FURTHER, INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK.
ZIEGENFELDER
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